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The pipeline of new airline pilots appears to be drying up for many reasons – reasons ranging from the high cost of flight training versus the perceived career payoff, to the increased flight experience required as a result of new federal regulations. Either way, a shortage of pilots at regional airlines yields significant consequence on the major airlines they operate for. As the regionals reduce the amount of aircraft they can operate due to staffing shortfalls, their major airline counterparts ultimately lose valuable passenger feed. Throw irregular operational events such as snowstorms into the mix, and an already struggling operation is quickly crippled. Clearly change is needed before it’s too late.
Fortunately, the industry may be adapting to its struggles in a way that compliments the cyclical nature of the airline business. Present day industry trends that point to past practices appear to address the pilot shortage issue by default. If we briefly review a timeline of airline history, cycles of an abundance of airline brands followed by periods of industry consolidation become apparent. For example, in the 1980’s we saw People Express, New York Air, and Frontier Airlines all merge into Continental Airlines. In the same decade, PSA and Piedmont Airlines merged into US Air. Before we knew it, the legacy airline landscape was comprised of United, American, Delta, Northwest, US Airways, and Continental Airlines. Proving the cycle once again, recent merger activity has yielded only three remaining legacy U.S. airlines - American, United, and Delta.
The past 20 years has also seen a spawn of numerous regional airlines doing business as (DBA) the major airline counterpart whom they hold a contract with. By outsourcing their regional jet flying needs, major airlines have realized significant cost advantages by leveraging the competition between multiple regional carriers who underbid one another to win a proposed flying contract. To be competitively positioned, regional carriers maintain the lowest cost structure possible, most notably through extremely low employee compensation.
When the regional jet first surfaced in the late 1990’s, the economics of cheaper fuel allowed the skies to be littered with smaller, yet profitable 50-seat jet aircraft. The use of these jets allowed for increased frequency between city pairs with the same speed and similar range of larger aircraft that couldn’t support such a strategy in certain markets. Today however, higher fuel costs have drastically changed the viability of such a business model – a model that is now changing.
Coincidentally, in a time when these smaller jets aren’t economically viable (arguably they haven’t been for quite some time), the ability to find the pilots to fly them is also failing. The current industry response is a feverish replacement of outgoing 50-seaters with larger 76 -100 seat regional aircraft, however not on a one-for-one basis. What we’re seeing is an overall reduction in regional airline size as the result of a shrinking fleet. In fact, many of the larger regional aircraft are finding their way back onto major airline fleets as a result of pilot union/airline management negotiations. The result of this trend is a long-term view of overall smaller regional carriers that will ultimately require fewer pilots. This new model won’t develop overnight, rather over the course of the coming years, but one can see how the aforementioned pilot void may shrink.
How might these changes affect the paying passenger? I think the overall outlook for the customer is a positive one. For starters, as the retiring smaller aircraft are replaced with larger ones on a less than one-for-one basis, overall there will be less aircraft in the skies. This of course leads to alleviated airspace and airport congestion, which equals fewer delays. On the other hand, smaller aircraft allow for more frequent flights between city pairs - a plus for the flexibility needs of a business traveler. Larger regional aircraft may reduce that frequency but still allow for similar cumulative seating capacity, with the added bonus of a first class cabin. As an example, instead of five flights a day between cities on a 50-seater, perhaps three or four flights on a 76-seater will result. The overall passengers carried will be roughly the same – only on fewer available flights, but in more comfort.
The cycle of the ever-adapting airline industry tends to repair it’s own problems in many ways. There is certainly current-day proof that air service is being restricted due to the effect of a shrinking pilot supply, and it will likely get worse before it gets better. These are highly dynamic times in the airline business, and reverting back to what once was may indeed brighten the outlook.
The Changing Dynamic of Regional Airlines
It’s no secret that regional airlines are struggling to backfill outgoing pilots. As the baby-boomer generation of major airline pilots encroaches on the mandatory age-65 retirement point, experienced pilots from regional carriers are quickly being hired to fill their shoes. The result is a desperate need at the regional level to fill the void with a new generation of airline pilots – a void that is only getting wider. But can we expect the problem to spiral out of control, or is the airline industry evolving in a way that counteracts it?The pipeline of new airline pilots appears to be drying up for many reasons – reasons ranging from the high cost of flight training versus the perceived career payoff, to the increased flight experience required as a result of new federal regulations. Either way, a shortage of pilots at regional airlines yields significant consequence on the major airlines they operate for. As the regionals reduce the amount of aircraft they can operate due to staffing shortfalls, their major airline counterparts ultimately lose valuable passenger feed. Throw irregular operational events such as snowstorms into the mix, and an already struggling operation is quickly crippled. Clearly change is needed before it’s too late.
Fortunately, the industry may be adapting to its struggles in a way that compliments the cyclical nature of the airline business. Present day industry trends that point to past practices appear to address the pilot shortage issue by default. If we briefly review a timeline of airline history, cycles of an abundance of airline brands followed by periods of industry consolidation become apparent. For example, in the 1980’s we saw People Express, New York Air, and Frontier Airlines all merge into Continental Airlines. In the same decade, PSA and Piedmont Airlines merged into US Air. Before we knew it, the legacy airline landscape was comprised of United, American, Delta, Northwest, US Airways, and Continental Airlines. Proving the cycle once again, recent merger activity has yielded only three remaining legacy U.S. airlines - American, United, and Delta.
The past 20 years has also seen a spawn of numerous regional airlines doing business as (DBA) the major airline counterpart whom they hold a contract with. By outsourcing their regional jet flying needs, major airlines have realized significant cost advantages by leveraging the competition between multiple regional carriers who underbid one another to win a proposed flying contract. To be competitively positioned, regional carriers maintain the lowest cost structure possible, most notably through extremely low employee compensation.
When the regional jet first surfaced in the late 1990’s, the economics of cheaper fuel allowed the skies to be littered with smaller, yet profitable 50-seat jet aircraft. The use of these jets allowed for increased frequency between city pairs with the same speed and similar range of larger aircraft that couldn’t support such a strategy in certain markets. Today however, higher fuel costs have drastically changed the viability of such a business model – a model that is now changing.
Coincidentally, in a time when these smaller jets aren’t economically viable (arguably they haven’t been for quite some time), the ability to find the pilots to fly them is also failing. The current industry response is a feverish replacement of outgoing 50-seaters with larger 76 -100 seat regional aircraft, however not on a one-for-one basis. What we’re seeing is an overall reduction in regional airline size as the result of a shrinking fleet. In fact, many of the larger regional aircraft are finding their way back onto major airline fleets as a result of pilot union/airline management negotiations. The result of this trend is a long-term view of overall smaller regional carriers that will ultimately require fewer pilots. This new model won’t develop overnight, rather over the course of the coming years, but one can see how the aforementioned pilot void may shrink.
How might these changes affect the paying passenger? I think the overall outlook for the customer is a positive one. For starters, as the retiring smaller aircraft are replaced with larger ones on a less than one-for-one basis, overall there will be less aircraft in the skies. This of course leads to alleviated airspace and airport congestion, which equals fewer delays. On the other hand, smaller aircraft allow for more frequent flights between city pairs - a plus for the flexibility needs of a business traveler. Larger regional aircraft may reduce that frequency but still allow for similar cumulative seating capacity, with the added bonus of a first class cabin. As an example, instead of five flights a day between cities on a 50-seater, perhaps three or four flights on a 76-seater will result. The overall passengers carried will be roughly the same – only on fewer available flights, but in more comfort.
The cycle of the ever-adapting airline industry tends to repair it’s own problems in many ways. There is certainly current-day proof that air service is being restricted due to the effect of a shrinking pilot supply, and it will likely get worse before it gets better. These are highly dynamic times in the airline business, and reverting back to what once was may indeed brighten the outlook.
Daniel Fahl Escritor del staff
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You make a good point about the 91/135. There are some good ones out there and young pilots will have to have a reality check, $ wise, when 1500 hours are attained. Lots of those 91/135 gigs are paying well above starting regional pay and flying big iron as well, and that is what it is all about, or should be. As we expanded last year and my time wound down, I hired 5 pilots. Of course they were all well experienced but even the youngest started at $60k, the more senior above $100k but they are all now typed on a 767, CRJ200 and a KA90gti.We are chartered 135 but it basically is a 91 as we strictly corporate fly but have done some outside under contract. Point is, that reality check will come along. It did for me in 73. A young man or woman should not be so single minded that they miss it.
As a retired AF pilot, it has been very interesting flying 135 charter. First, it is a crime what "premier" flight schools/colleges charge these kids for flight training and an aviation degree. They are sold a bill of goods to take on$100,000 of student debt because "it will give a leg up on the competition." Horse hockey. Time, qualifications, experience, and apptitude are what matter. It has been surprising to find out just how many immigrants, some even with just a green card waiting to gain citizenship, are here in the US flying commercially or part 91K....90% that I have spoken with got their licenses at mom and pop flight schools in south Florida and other locations for a fraction of a "premier" school. I know one guy who is in the process of having his flight school in Central America approved as a part 141 school by the FAA. He is trying to cash in by supplying a steady stream of young pilots to the US from South America. It is going to be interesting to see how the pool of commercial/airline pilots changed in the coming years.
Thanks for sharing. Are these the same pilots that have been moving up to part 121 airlines (regionals, majors)?
Major and regional US airlines have often been able to have higher standards than bare minimum requirements in the pipits they hire to sit at the pointy end of their planes.
It would be ironic if the new hours requirement make the airlines (esp. regionals) have to compromise on their standards and characteristics in order to fill seats up front with pilots with enough hours.
Major and regional US airlines have often been able to have higher standards than bare minimum requirements in the pipits they hire to sit at the pointy end of their planes.
It would be ironic if the new hours requirement make the airlines (esp. regionals) have to compromise on their standards and characteristics in order to fill seats up front with pilots with enough hours.
"How might these changes affect the paying passenger? I think the overall outlook for the customer is a positive one" Have to take offense at this one. The coming pilot shortage at the Regional level is almost here. A lot of furloughed Regional pilots (i.e. COMAIR) won't be coming back and regional recruitment is a farce. Why should anyone in their right mind spend upwards of $100K to get a CFI or other time-building job at minimum wage to then get promoted to a Regional F/O slot paying $22K a year or less. When the Regionals can no longer recruit cheap pilots, they will really go into draconian cost-cutting measures or go out of business. Lose the Regional inflow to the majors, and then the Majors will cry uncle and turn the entire US aviation system into a giant AMTRAK commercial.
Even with qualified from Comair out there, they won't work for peanuts
Don't forget the hordes from Envoy that will join their Comair brethren as Envoy contracts. I still can't see the value to the pilots to not let them vote on their own future.
The best former flyers of both Comair and Envoy will get picked off by the majors. The others will have some hard choices to make. But starting pay at any regional (no matter how sweetened it gets) will never match up to stepped up pay for a pilot with lots of seniority from Comair or Envoy that finds himself it herself without a job.
Some how getting to keep one's job (even at the same rates previously agreed in earlier agreements) at a regional airline with a reputation for highest pay in the category, sounds like it may be better than being forced to start over.
The best former flyers of both Comair and Envoy will get picked off by the majors. The others will have some hard choices to make. But starting pay at any regional (no matter how sweetened it gets) will never match up to stepped up pay for a pilot with lots of seniority from Comair or Envoy that finds himself it herself without a job.
Some how getting to keep one's job (even at the same rates previously agreed in earlier agreements) at a regional airline with a reputation for highest pay in the category, sounds like it may be better than being forced to start over.
One word, ALPA
It's what I call forced instability.
A good job at good pay is better than insisting on always increasing pay that get pushed past what the market is willing to pay. The consequences are almost always less desirable when the situation gets unstable from a financial and disruptive labor relations perspective.
A good job at good pay is better than insisting on always increasing pay that get pushed past what the market is willing to pay. The consequences are almost always less desirable when the situation gets unstable from a financial and disruptive labor relations perspective.
As to the topic of 91/135 flying. That world is not big enough nor busy enough to support the influx of pilots looking to build time. Unless you get on with a busy 135 operator which would require many hours to start with, building the required time takes years of flying. On demand is the key word here, no demand, no flying. Once you have the required hours, would you want to leave your much higher paying 91 gig, to go make 50-70% less to go fly for a regional? The decision is yours. There are some pilots whose only goal is to make it to a mainline and great for them. Reality is, life will dictate what you can do and what you want to do.
Agree with Rory, the price for a college flight degree is terrible. Many other options are out there. Most if not all operators are looking for a degree, period. Could be a business degree, biology, accounting et. Go to a "mom and pop" or other flight school and learn to fly. A commercial license from a college trained pilot looks exactly the same as a commercial license from another training outlet.
My advice for people who want to be a pilot, go for it. Do not listen to ALL the negatives and do not listen to ALL the positives. But, do get an education in something else besides flying. Have a back up plan. An aviation degree gets one thing in life, a business or other degree opens up much, much more to you in life. As you can tell, that is something I have though about on late nights in the seat.
Side note, I recently learned that a major store is so short on pharmacists, they offer 120K to start and car lease to fresh graduates. Now THAT is the way to solve your shortage! I'm waiting by my phone for Envoy to call...any minute now...