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Demand for big planes flat in 2014—Boeing and Airbus both feel the pinch
2014 hasn’t been a great year for jumbo jet manufacturers: according to a report by Jalopnik, neither Boeing nor Airbus netted any orders for their newest and biggest airplanes in 2014. (arstechnica.com) Más...
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I think that when Airbus and Boeing started upgrade programs for their 777´s and 330´s..they have killed with a silver bullet the 747 and 380. Where was the marketing and or sales and planning of both companies??? taking a nap?
Ain't no doubt that the 380 took a bite out of the 747 sales, just because it was new, but then as the market for, big, long haul twins really solidified, they did kinda get passed over, and yeah, somebody was asleep at the switch.
With a line 3 years long for each, it seems there is a bit of latitude to absorb a temporary lull in orders. But, if the new orders remain at 0 for another year or two....
It has been all about changing to larger twins to make each flight more profitable. As it looks like there is enough capacity to keep a lid on oil prices, fuel prices will drop for airlines as long term contracts for Jet A expire.
Now the big dogs look more attractive because of their ability to swallow cargo. With lower fuel prices, airfreight will become desirable for more price sensitive shippers. In the 80's Pan Am flew 74's to Beijing with just a handful of passengers at in the winter. They were profitable because below deck it was stuffed like a Nairobi city bus.
Suffer OPEC, suffer!
Now the big dogs look more attractive because of their ability to swallow cargo. With lower fuel prices, airfreight will become desirable for more price sensitive shippers. In the 80's Pan Am flew 74's to Beijing with just a handful of passengers at in the winter. They were profitable because below deck it was stuffed like a Nairobi city bus.
Suffer OPEC, suffer!
Well, a lot of that is agreed, but just exactly how those new long term prices fall out will be a question and then, will they still look at that same % cost wise in the spread between the 4 and 2 engines, opting to stay with the latter. Yes PanAm flew that because oil prices were a WHOLE lot less than what they will probably be on the new contracts but also in the 80's, at least the early 80's, they did not have the twins in great number to fall back on or they might have. It should also be noted that they pretty much had a fleet full of the 47's and had to keep them busy.
"Today, 54 per cent of the world’s population lives in urban areas, a proportion that is expected to increase to 66 per cent by 2050." (http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/publications/2014-revision-world-urbanization-prospects.html)
With that in mind, it is likely that point to point travel will increase over time. As a result, it is likely that the facility capacity existing in today's secondary airports will become filled. This will mean that larger airplanes with greater carrying capacities (jumbo-jet scale) will need to be implemented for the routes with the greatest number of passengers. So while there might only be limited demand for huge plane such as the B747 or A380 operating between the world's busiest airports in the short term, the demand will grow as the world population grows and, more importantly, urbanization grows. ...Just my guess...
With that in mind, it is likely that point to point travel will increase over time. As a result, it is likely that the facility capacity existing in today's secondary airports will become filled. This will mean that larger airplanes with greater carrying capacities (jumbo-jet scale) will need to be implemented for the routes with the greatest number of passengers. So while there might only be limited demand for huge plane such as the B747 or A380 operating between the world's busiest airports in the short term, the demand will grow as the world population grows and, more importantly, urbanization grows. ...Just my guess...
Well, you are probably correct. The 748 will definitely have an advantage in that it can operate at an airport without any infrastructure change. Boeing should capitalize marketing on that point. It remains to be seen who will upgrade to accommodate the 380.
I guess that one question could be whether it would make sense to put both programs on standby/sleep mode after the order books run out. Both programs could then be revived when necessary, incorporating the newest engines and doubling down on marketing efforts. Like you said, @preacher1, the 748's ability to not need infrastructure upgrades is important to advertise. For airports with the tightest slot-allowances, a second boarding-bridge may still make sense, however.
Yeah, but those bridges will cost money and that added infrastructure cost will require higher landing fees. They have orders to absorb things for a couple of years, but during that time is when the tale will be told. The 748 is really the Boeing flagship as they have slowed production rather than just axe the program and Airbus has basically done the same thing by coming out with the NEO option on the 380.
That's a good point. I have a question in regard to the 748F versus the passenger version of the 748. I can understand how the plane makes sense for cargo operators transporting large objects due to the huge cargo bay door. For the passenger version, I don't really understand how the plane makes the most sense. The hump in the fuselage creates extra drag, right? If going with large passenger planes from Boeing, it would the make more sense to choose a 777-9x. The ~50 seat difference seems to be negligible. On the other hand, the 388 seems to have been built around a regular fuselage shape with cargo doors being accommodated after the overall design. In theory, it would make most sense to go with the 388 to get the highest number of passenger when not figuring in the infrastructure upgrades.
Well, I doubt ether one will be discontinued right away but the next 2-3 years will be interesting, especially with the 777 and the Bus out there.
