Flight cancellations and delays have become a frustrating, seemingly unavoidable part of air travel this summer. While any flight is liable to get canceled, especially as the aviation industry is facing several operational issues right now, experts say there are a few booking strategies that could help lessen the chances of having your flight get nixed from the airline's schedule.
Although it's not a guarantee, booking a flight earlier in the day can help avoid the ripple effect that snarled operations routinely cause. And at least for now, it's one of passengers' best strategies until airlines can hire enough crew, as well as take other additional measures to smooth out the crisis. “This [situation] has been building since early April and resources are now exhausted and new [employees] are still coming through their training and security checks. That takes time,” says John Grant, chief analyst at data firm Official Aviation Guide (OAG).
We took a look at recent airline data in the U.S. and Europe to identify the best times to fly in order to avoid cancellations. Specifically, very early morning or mid-morning, as well as a small window in the early afternoon, seem to be the timeframes with the fewest hiccups. “The later in the day the departure, the greater the probability of cancellations, as airlines see resources running down,” Grant says.
Here's all the information you need to be strategic as you book to give yourself the best chance of a smooth takeoff.
Best times to fly in the U.S.
According to data analyzed by OAG from April 1 through June 21, flight cancellations for U.S. departures start seeing a major uptick each day around 3 p.m. Cancellations remain fairly high through to 9 p.m., with notable spikes at 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. During the three-month period that OAG analyzed, the highest number of cancellations occurred during the 6 p.m. hour with a grand total of 32,221 cancellations, followed by 7 p.m with 32,037, and 8 p.m. with 28,757.
To that end, if you're looking to avoid a cancellation, morning flights seem safer to book. Flights departing first thing in the morning saw the fewest cancellations, in part because there are fewer scheduled departures (which also means fewer things to go wrong). There were only 4,025 flights canceled in the 5 a.m. hour, according to the data set from OAG. Progressing through the morning, takeoffs—and therefore cancellations—start to spike. From 6 a.m. to 8 a.m. there were significant cancellations (19,854 during 6 a.m.; 18,071 during 7 a.m.; and 19,182 during 8 a.m.). Things settled down again for departures leaving between 9 a.m. to 2 p.m., with the number of cancellations dipping further at the 11 a.m. hour, which saw a total of 12,563 over the three months.
While the volume of cancellations is higher than in the past, the time of day when most U.S. flights are getting canceled hasn't shifted too much, according to Grant. “In North America, the pattern remains fairly consistent with other years,” he adds.
In addition to the time of day, the day of the week may also have an influence on punctuality. According to aviation intelligence company FlightAware's data for 2022, the most canceled flights happen on Fridays, which has an average of 826 cancellations each week across the country, while the least are on Tuesdays, which has significantly less with 321 cancellations on average. Thursdays (an average of 817), Saturdays (average of 744), and Sundays (average of 751) are also on the high end, with Mondays (average of 570) and Wednesdays (average of 491) are on the lower side.
When to fly in Europe
Across the Atlantic, the situation differs slightly. “In Europe, we have seen a noticeable change in the pattern whereby those flights departing late morning are more likely to depart on time since the early morning rush of departures and pressure on resources is eased,” Grant says. OAG’s data shows 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. departures with the highest number of cancellations across the continent, with a dip during those mid-day hours from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m.
While travel has seemingly bounced back more in the U.S. and Europe, the disruptions aren’t isolated to these regions. “We track the number of cancellations across every market in the world and what we are seeing is a common trend in nearly every market in the world, cancellations have been increasing,” Grant says. “But it has to be considered in context—the industry normally has around a 1.5% cancellation rate, so the current 5% seems high, but if you compare that to other transport providers, it is actually still good.”
Additional strategies to keep in mind
The deeper into the summer, the more likely weather cancellations become. FlightAware’s historic data from January 2011 through June 2022 shows that all of the greatest spikes of mass cancellations have been attributed to weather events, like hurricanes and storms—which can be another reason to stick to early flights. “Weather tends to be the best in the morning, so if there’s a thunderstorm system that starts to cause flight delays, those delays accumulate throughout the day—with some turning into cancelled flights,” says Kathleen Bangs, a FlightAware spokesperson and former airline pilot. “And once that happens, there’s less chance of getting on another flight.”
One way to get ahead of the game is to check status updates on FlightAware—the company powers more than half of the nation's estimated time of arrival (ETA) data, so it often has cancellation information before the airlines. Bangs also suggests looking at its “Where is My Plane Now” feature to see where the plane is in real time to ensure the estimated departure times seem on target. “I found out via FlightAware once recently that my morning flight was cancelled hours before the airline sent me an email,” Bangs says.
Being strategic about the day and time you book your flight might minimize the odds of a cancellation, but for those looking to board a plane this summer, patience and flexibility will still be a requirement for the remainder of the season—and into the near future.