GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS: Flight cancellations are down, but delays are up compared to 2022.
gettyFlight delays are still a big problem, but travelers are far from helpless. Here’s how to vastly improve the odds of getting to your destination on time.
First, the good news. Flight cancellations are down this year compared to 2022. “That’s the bright spot,” says Kathleen Bangs, a former commercial pilot and current spokesperson at FlightAware. “We’ve only had a couple of days recently with more than 500 cancellations in a single day in the U.S. That’s about a third of what we saw many days in June last year.”
And now for the bad news. Flight delays are up compared to the hellishness of air travel in summer 2022, when “airport chaos” headlines were ubiquitious.
Recent FlightAware data shows an average of 30,000 delayed flights per day globally — including 7,000 to 9,000 delayed flights per day in the U.S. “Anytime you get over above 4,000 delays in the U.S., it gets noticeable,” says Bangs.
When comparing May and June in 2022 versus 2023, Bangs says “the total number of global flights have gone up significantly due to pandemic recovery. But delays have gone up even more, percentagewise, than the volume of flights.”
Fortunately, there are many ways for summer travelers to both minimize the risk of having their trip disrupted and to manage a disruption in real time. Here’s a playbook for flying smart in summer 2023:
Book the earliest possible flight of the day. Everyone wants a mid-morning flight, but you’re better off departing at the crack of dawn, especially if you have a connecting flight. “Statistically, every hour you wait, the chance of a delay gets worse,” says Bangs.
Afternoon flights tend to be delayed much more often for two reasons. First, planes are reused over and over throughout the day. “Understand that your airplane is always working. You’re sleeping, but that plane is out working making money for the airline,” Bangs says.
Planes often don’t make it to their late-day departure airport on time because they get hung up on previous routes. For example, a plane stuck in Houston at 2 p.m. won’t make it to Chicago for its 5:15 p.m. departure. There’s a domino effect, where one delay begets another.
Also, in summertime, stormy weather tends to be more problematic in afternoons and evenings. “Generally speaking, the least number of thunderstorms happen early in the morning, before the sun really starts cooking things,” says Bangs.
Show your loyalty, even if you have to pretend. Anytime you fly, it pays to book directly with the airline and join the airline’s loyalty club. Bangs says taking these steps might very well help in the event of a delayed or overbooked flight.
“Anything that makes you look like a more loyal customer is going to help you get better customer service,” says Bangs. “When they go down the list of who is going to get bumped, it’s the least loyal customer. It’s the one-off. It’s the ‘we’ve never seen this guy, he’s not in our system.’”
Something else that might seem less intuitive: “Print out your boarding pass,” Bangs says. “I have talked to airline employees in the last year who have told me that once you have that paper pass in your hand, it makes it harder for you to be involuntarily bumped if push comes to shove.”
Three days out, keep your eyes on national weather patterns. Roughly two thirds of delays — 63% — are weather-related, according to FAA data. “It doesn't necessarily matter if you’ve got a blue sky over your head,” Bangs says. “What matters is what the weather is like where that plane is coming from.”
To get a heads-up on potential trouble, Bangs refers to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Forecast Map. “It’s wildly accurate,” says Bangs. “It tells you what to expect for weather today, tomorrow and the next day. It shows you every front across the country — where there is going to be rain, thunderstorms, severe weather, snow — all at a glance.”
Arming yourself with this information allows you to switch dates or routes to tee up a better scenario. “I might say, ‘Oh, my God, no. I definitely don't want to be going to Atlanta on Thursday,’ when there’s 100% chance of severe thunderstorms,” Bangs says. “So I'll go a day earlier, or I’ll change my connecting flight to go through St. Louis.”
On flight day, track your plane. One of Bangs’ favorite FlightAware tools can give travelers an early heads-up that a problem may be brewing. Enter your flight information, and then click the “Where is my plane now?” link just under the flight number. You’ll be able to see if the plane is ahead of schedule, on time or behind schedule and you can act accordingly — even before the airline announces a delay or cancellation.
Real-time flight disruption? Get on your phone, and get in line. Despite everything, you might find yourself looking down the barrel of a long flight delay or, worse, a cancellation. This is where speed is key, says Bangs.
“Let’s suppose your flight got delayed. But you see that there's another flight in an hour and a half,” she says. “Now you’ve got 130 people who want to get on that flight. The savviest person with the fastest fingers wins.”
In that situation, Bangs has a two-pronged attack plan. “I probably already knew way before the airline announced it, because I was consulting FlightAware’s Where's My Plane? tool. So I’m on the airline’s app, seeing what other flights they have, figuring out what moves I can make,” she says. “I’m also in line at the airline’s customer service desk, just in case I end up needing assistance. But I'm really going to try to do it myself, because whoever can do it fastest on their phone is probably going to get on that flight.”
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